Trey Lance trade fits: Which NFL teams make sense as landing spot for 49ers QB?

Two years after his arrival in the “Trey Area,” it appears Trey Lance’s tenure with the San Francisco 49ers could soon reach a surprisingly abrupt conclusion.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan told KNBR on Wednesday that journeyman Sam Darnold had “really separated himself” for the Niners’ backup quarterback post behind starter Brock Purdy. That appears to leave Lance – the third overall pick of the 2021 draft, a selection that cost Shanahan and GM John Lynch three first-rounders to acquire – as the odd man out, even if the organization continues to have a certain belief and affinity for the 23-year-old North Dakota State product.

“I mean, this isn’t a thing where we’re giving up on Trey,” said Shanahan. “(B)ut we have to make a decision here.”

Shanahan acknowledged he’d love to keep Lance – he's only had 262 regular-season snaps with 102 pass attempts – especially in the aftermath of a 2022 campaign in which the NFC West-champion 49ers needed four quarterbacks. However he acknowledged staying put might no longer be the best situation for Lance.

“It’s been a tough road for him, because the times he has got an opportunity, he ended up getting hurt and missing that window,” Shanahan said. “We’ll always try to do right for Trey. If there’s a better situation that his heart’s in, we’re going to make sure not to hurt him in that way.

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“Trey knows how I feel about him, and I hope he ends up being able to be here and that’s the best thing for him. But we’ve got to see what is the best thing from now until then.”

ESPN reported San Francisco would be willing to part with Lance for moderate compensation. An outright release seems unlikely given the near $15 million dead cap hit the team would incur (a trade would save the 49ers nearly $4 million). Barring an optimal scenario, Lynch told KNBR on Thursday morning that Lance "most likely" remains on the roster.

Given those considerations, here are seven clubs that seem like reasonable trade destinations for Lance:

Atlanta Falcons

Second-year QB Desmond Ridder is getting his shot to lead a group that appears largely set aside from its question under center. Lance’s lack of football experience – which goes back to a college career interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic – would suggest his presence wouldn't detract from Ridder's opportunity in 2023, a complete disaster likely thrusting QB2 Taylor Heinicke to the rescue. But this could be a nice developmental spot for Lance and an organization – much like the 49ers – that’s ready to go once its most important position is settled.

Dallas Cowboys

No question this is Dak Prescott’s team … at least for the next two seasons he's under contract. No quarterback on the roster of America’s Team is going to be invisible, but Lance could sharpen his skills – probably for a while – in what passes for anonymity in Dallas. And don’t forget, Mike McCarthy had Brett Favre as his QB1 for two years in Green Bay before transitioning to future four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Denver Broncos

They need Russell Wilson to rebound, not only for competitive purposes but because his five-year, $245 million extension almost certainly ties him to the franchise financially for at least two more seasons. That said, new HC Sean Payton was a quarterback as a player and has a great track record maximizing the position in the NFL. Lance and his multi-dimensional skill set – perhaps a bit akin to Wilson in his prime – would certainly seem to have more upside than current backups Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci.

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Las Vegas Raiders

Jimmy Garoppolo is a Band-Aid, though preseason rookie sensation Aidan O'Connell has shown signs of being a long-term solution. But given the state of affairs in the Sin City desert, the Silver and Black might be wise to diversify their options. And Lance’s pre-existing relationship with former Niner Garoppolo could help with a potential transition, especially given Jimmy G.’s own pre-existing relationship with HC Josh McDaniels.

Miami Dolphins

The obvious hope in South Florida is that Tua Tagovailoa is the guy. His concerning injury history and fact he hasn’t been financially secured – as 2020 draft mates Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts have been, with Joe Burrow likely not far behind – suggest Tagovailoa still has to prove himself as the face of this franchise. HC Mike McDaniel was Lance’s offensive coordinator in San Francisco in 2021, so Miami could provide a unique opportunity for him to work on the quarterbacking craft without also having to learn an alien offense.

Minnesota Vikings

Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins is out of contract after this season. The Vikes have no obvious succession plan and – barring an unexpected collapse – are probably way too talented to play themselves into a top-five draft pick in 2024. Lance is a native of the state and had wanted to play collegiately for the University of Minnesota. Sometimes a homecoming – not to mention learning from an ex-quarterback like Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell – is just what you need.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Newly anointed starter Baker Mayfield is under contract just for this season. Newly anointed QB2 Kyle Trask is under contract just for this season and next. Maybe one of them works out for the Bucs, but a team entering its post-Brady reality while installing a completely new playbook is probably one that should continue exploring all avenues.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.